Fantasy Football Rookie Watch: Trent Richardson, RB

by Matt DiAntonio

Matt DiAntonio is an avid fantasy football fan and a member of the editorial team for Gridiron-Guru. He is still basking in the glory of his first round selection of Arian Foster (overall pick #5) in his 2010 dynasty draft.

Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns

Fantasy Football Ranking – Standard Scoring:  12^th
Fantasy Football Ranking – PPR Rank: 12^th
Rookie Position Rank:  1
Projection: 1232.45 Rush Yards, 6.00 Rush TDs, 36.80 Recs, 298.08 Rec Yards, 2.00 Rec TDs

Fantasy Football Analysis

The Cleveland Browns gave up valuable draft picks, that could have been used to further bolster their roster, in order to move up one spot in the 2012 NFL Draft.  They viewed it as a necessary price to pay to land one of the players that they viewed as a potential superstar in the draft.  Holmgren and crew believe that Richardson has “once in a decade” talent and they plan to prove it to the AFC North.

Richardson steps into a good scenario in Cleveland.  While their skill position players are young and unproven – their offensive line is anchored by strong talent.  Cleveland’s offensive line opened enough holes for punishing runner, Peyton Hillis, to have a Top 10 fantasy season two years ago, and made the mediocre talents of Chris Ogbonnaya look impressive in November of 2012 (11/13 & 11/20 – 205 rushing yards, 1 TD on 40 carries)

Cleveland’s West Coast system favors the swing pass, as an outlet, which gets the ball out to the RB in the flat.  For PPR fans, that will translate into a healthy amount of receptions for Richardson, who has good hands and the burst to average 8+ yards per reception.

Trent Richardson is a safe pick at the bottom of the first round in redraft leagues – and will make an excellent second round selection to pair with another RB1 if you are so lucky as to have him on the board when you pick again.   Fantasy teams picking in the bottom portion of the first half, in serpentine drafts, should be targeting Richardson when their swing selection comes back.

In dynasty fantasy football formats, Trent Richardson is the #1 overall selection without doubt.  His ceiling is incredibly high.  He has the talent to lead the NFL in rushing in years to come.  He will be held back this year by an offense in Cleveland that will roll with a rookie passer and a cast of unproven wideouts.  Still, a projection of 1,200 rushing yards & 6 rushing TDs is safe.  We also like him to have 36 receptions for just under 300 receiving yards and a pair of receiving TDs.

Gridiron-Guru’s 2012 Fantasy Football Projection:  RB1 talent, at a possible RB2 price.  Dominant dynasty talent.